A novel adaptive grey verhulst model for network security situation prediction

Leau, Yu Beng and Selvakumar Manickam, (2016) A novel adaptive grey verhulst model for network security situation prediction. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications (IJACSA), 7 (1). pp. 90-95. ISSN 2156-5570


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Recently, researchers have shown an increased interest in predicting the situation of incoming security situation for organization’s network. Many prediction models have been produced for this purpose, but many of these models have various limitations in practical applications. In addition, literature shows that far too little attention has been paid in utilizing the grey Verhulst model predicting network security situation although it has demonstrated satisfactory results in other fields. By considering the nature of intrusion attacks and shortcomings of traditional grey Verhulst model, this paper puts forward an adaptive grey Verhust model with adjustable generation sequence to improve the prediction accuracy. The proposed model employs the combination methods of Trapezoidal rule and Simpson’s 1/3rd rule to obtain the background value in grey differential equation which will directly influence the forecast result. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, benchmarked datasets, DARPA 1999 and 2000 have been used to highlight the efficacy of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed adaptive grey Verhulst surpassed GM(1,1) and traditional grey Verhulst in forecasting incoming security situation in a network.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Grey Theory; Network Security Situation Prediction; Adaptive Grey Verhulst Model; Adjustable Generation Sequence; Prediction Accuracy
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Divisions: FACULTY > Faculty of Computing and Informatics
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email storage.bpmlib@ums.edu.my
Date Deposited: 31 Jan 2017 06:33
Last Modified: 25 Oct 2017 06:47
URI: http://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/15426

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