Non-linear predictability in G7 stock index returns

Lim, Kian Ping and Hooy, Chee Wooi (2012) Non-linear predictability in G7 stock index returns. Manchester School. ISSN 1463-6786

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Abstract

This paper re-examines the persistence and source of non-linear predictability in the stock markets of G7 countries. Applying the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) test on autoregression (AR)-filtered returns in rolling estimation windows, we find evidence of local non-linear predictability in all the sampled stock markets. To identify the source, we apply the BDS test on AR-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-filtered returns in rolling windows. After accounting for conditional heteroskedasticity, we still find brief time periods with non-linear predictability in all markets, contradicting the weak-form efficient markets hypothesis.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Non-linear, Stock index
Subjects: ?? HG4551-4598 ??
Divisions: SCHOOL > Labuan School of International Business and Finance
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email storage.bpmlib@ums.edu.my
Date Deposited: 04 Dec 2012 09:17
Last Modified: 11 Oct 2017 01:25
URI: http://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/5539

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