Adaptive neuro-fuzzy optimization of reservoir operations under climate variability in the Chao Phraya River Basin

Luksanaree Maneechot and Chang, Jackson Hian Wui and Kai, He and Maochuan Hu and Wan Abd Al Qadr ImadWan-Mohtar and Zul Ilham and Carlos García Castro and Yong Jie Wong, Jie Wong (2025) Adaptive neuro-fuzzy optimization of reservoir operations under climate variability in the Chao Phraya River Basin. Water, 17. pp. 1-19. ISSN 2073-4441

Text FULLTEXT.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (3MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Reservoir operations play a pivotal role in shaping the flow regime of the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB), where two major reservoirs exert substantial hydrological influence. Despite ongoing efforts to manage water resources effectively, current operational strategies often lack the adaptability required to address the compounded uncertainties of climate change and increasing water demands. This research addresses this critical gap by developing an optimization model for reservoir operation that explicitly incorporates climate variability. An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was employed using four fundamental inputs: reservoir inflow, storage, rainfall, and water demands. Daily resolution data from 2000 to 2012 were used, with 2005–2012 selected for training due to the inclusion of multiple extreme hydrological events, including the 2011 flood, which enriched the model’s learning capability. The period 2000–2004 was reserved for testing to independently assess model generalizability. Eight types of membership functions (MFs) were tested to determine the most suitable configuration, with the trapezoidal MF selected for its favorable performance. The optimized models achieved Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.43 and 0.47, R2 values of 0.59 and 0.50, and RMSE values of 77.64 and 89.32 for Bhumibol and Sirikit Dams, respectively. The model enables the evaluation of both dam operations and climate change impacts on downstream discharges. Key findings highlight the importance of adaptive reservoir management by identifying optimal water release timings and corresponding daily release-storage ratios. The proposed approach contributes a novel, data-driven framework that enhances decision-making for integrated water resources management under changing climatic conditions.

Item Type:	Article
Keyword:	Reservoir operations, ANFIS, Integrated water resources management, Climate Variability, Hyperparameter optimization
Subjects:	T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering > TC1-978 Hydraulic engineering > TC401-506 River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General)
Department:	CENTRE > Preparation Centre for Science and Technology
Depositing User:	DG MASNIAH AHMAD -
Date Deposited:	05 Aug 2025 09:44
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2025 09:44
URI:	https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/44743

Actions (login required)

View Item