Future surface temperature and precipitation projection in A2 and B2 emission scenario over Malaysia

Kwek, Bieo Koon (2014) Future surface temperature and precipitation projection in A2 and B2 emission scenario over Malaysia. Universiti Malaysia Sabah. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Climate change is a continuous environmental crisis which leads to changes in temperature, precipitation and other climate variables. Global climate temperature is increased 0.74 oC since 1900 and observed rainfall variation variability exist over the regions. This research was to project future surface temperature and precipitation for Malaysia. The PRECIS regional climate model was also examined to validate its simulating performance. Both of the climate variables in the year of 2070 to 2010 were projected under A2 and B2 emission scenarios by using PRECIS. Raw projected climate data was then post-processed using CDAT. Statistical validations were done by comparison of Baseline scenario to ERA40 and CRUdat. Generally, the findings showed similar patterns of projected changes for temperature and precipitation. The temperature was increased as much as 2.56 oC to 2.80 oC and B2 scenarios have recorded 1.61 oC to 2.12 oC. Reduction of precipitation flux was found. Precipitation decreased -0.68 mm/day to -1.45 mm/day in A2 scenario and -1.01 mm/day to -1.67 mm/day in B2 scenario. The projected future climate is acceptable as the internal model bias is not significant in overall. Strong statistical correlations further validated the model as correlation value of temperature (0.966) and precipitation (0.830). With comparison to CRUDAT, PRECIS performs better in simulation temperature of climate than precipitation.

Item Type:Academic Exercise
Uncontrolled Keywords:PRECIS , CDAT , Climate change ,Climate Emission Scenarios
Subjects:Q Science > QE Geology
Divisions:FACULTY > Faculty of Science and Natural Resources
ID Code:14814
Deposited By:IR Admin
Deposited On:02 Nov 2016 10:18
Last Modified:02 Nov 2016 10:18

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