No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data

Kimberly M. Fornace and Hillary M. Topazian and Isobel Routledge and Syafie Asyraf and Jenarun Jelip and Kim A. Lindblade and Mohammad Saffree Jeffree and Pablo Ruiz Cuenca and Samir Bhatt and Kamruddin Ahmed and Azra C. Ghani and Chris Drakeley (2022) No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data. Nature Communications. pp. 1-8.

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URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38476-8

Abstract

Reported incidence of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has markedly increased across Southeast Asia and threatens malaria elimination. Nonzoonotic transmission of P. knowlesi has been experimentally demonstrated, but it remains unknown whether nonzoonotic transmission is contributing to increases in P. knowlesi cases. Here, we adapt model-based inference methods to estimate RC, individual case reproductive numbers, for P. knowlesi, P. falciparum and P. vivax human cases in Malaysia from 2012–2020 (n = 32,635). Best fitting models for P. knowlesi showed subcritical transmission (RC < 1) consistent with a large reservoir of unobserved infection sources, indicating P. knowlesi remains a primarily zoonotic infection. In contrast, sustained transmission (RC > 1) was estimated historically for P. falciparum and P. vivax, with declines in RC estimates observed over time consistent with local elimination. Together, this suggests sustained nonzoonotic P. knowlesi transmission is highly unlikely and that new approaches are urgently needed to control spillover risks.

Item Type:	Article
Keyword:	Plasmodium knowlesi , pheles mosquitoes , nonzoonotic malaria
Subjects:	Q Science > QL Zoology > QL1-991 Zoology > QL360-599.82 Invertebrates > QL461-599.82 Insects R Medicine > RC Internal medicine > RC31-1245 Internal medicine > RC109-216 Infectious and parasitic diseases
Department:	FACULTY > Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences
Depositing User:	ABDULLAH BIN SABUDIN -
Date Deposited:	19 Sep 2023 09:59
Last Modified:	19 Sep 2023 09:59
URI:	https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/36820

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