Exploring structural breaks in the economic-financial nexus: evidence from panel data analysis

Diana Hassan and Assis Kamu and Ricky Chee Jiun Chia and Ho Chong Mun (2024) Exploring structural breaks in the economic-financial nexus: evidence from panel data analysis. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 14 (4). pp. 1-16. ISSN 2222-6990

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Abstract

This study investigates the response of panel data consisting of the ASEAN-5 stock market to selected macroeconomic variables from January 2012 to December 2022. Specifically, it analyzes industrial production, the consumer price index, money supply (M1), Treasury Bills, long-term interest rates, and exchange rates. Utilizing the panel data approach, this research identifies two recent crises: U.S. Stock Market Crashes and the COVID-19 pandemic. The panel regression analysis reveals that the ASEAN-5 stock market index is consistently influenced by two different sets of selected macroeconomic variables. The results from Panel I indicate that industrial production and Treasury Bills have a negative influence, the consumer price index has a positive influence, and there is a mixed effect for money supply across the two breaks. When considering the long-term interest rate in Panel II, the results suggest the same selected variables and directional influence as seen on Panel I affecting the ASEAN-5 stock market. These findings remain consistent even after detecting structural breaks and conducting diagnostic checks. They also align with the observation that markets in developed economies tend to be heightened responsiveness to crises and global conflicts.

Item Type:	Article
Keyword:	Panel Data, Structural Break, ASEAN-5, COVID-19, U.S. Stock Market Crashes
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic theory. Demography > HB1-3840 Economic theory. Demography H Social Sciences > HC Economic history and conditions > HC10-1085 Economic history and conditions
Department:	FACULTY > Faculty of Science and Natural Resources
Depositing User:	ABDULLAH BIN SABUDIN -
Date Deposited:	16 Apr 2025 10:43
Last Modified:	16 Apr 2025 10:43
URI:	https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/43523

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